What are the Odds a Hurricane will Hit your City?

The list below is the result of an analysis by Mark Johnson, a University of Central Florida professor, and Chuck Watson, founder of the Kinetic Analysis Corp. of Savannah, Ga. Each number represents the probability of a particular city being struck by hurricane-force winds at any time during the upcoming hurricane season. The forecast modeling and statistical analysis simulates all hurricanes since 1851 and takes into account climate conditions for 2006.

The analysis covered cities along the entire Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Data for those cities, including 16 in Florida, are provided below.

The first figure for each city is the probability of hurricane-force winds striking there in 2006; the second figure is the average probability of experiencing hurricane-force winds during hurricane seasons dating back 155 years.

Major cities prone to experience hurricane-force winds (74 mph and above) in 2006

• New Orleans, La. 29.30% in 2006, 12.74 % average
• Mobile, Ala. 22.23 % in 2006, 11.30 % average
• Key West, Fla. 20.61 % in 2006, 14.79 % average
• Pensacola, Fla. 20.29 % in 2006, 10.97 % average
• West Palm Beach, Fla. 18.94 % in 2006, 15.87 % average

Probabilities of Florida cities experiencing hurricane-force winds

• Key West. 20.61 % in 2006, 14.79 % average
• Pensacola. 20.29 % in 2006, 10.97 % average
• West Palm Beach. 18.94 % in 2006, 15.87 % average
• Miami. 17.40 % in 2006, 15.77 % average
• Panama City. 16.92 % in 2006, 9.89 % average
• St. Augustine. 16.13 % in 2006, 7.81 % average
• St. Petersburg. 14.46 % in 2006, 11.72 % average
• Jacksonville. 13.70 % in 2006, 6.88 % average
• Cedar Key. 13.56 % in 2006, 8.31 % average
• Daytona Beach. 13.43 % in 2006, 7.93 % average
• Fort Myers. 12.34 % in 2006, 15.98 % average
• Vero Beach. 11.48 % in 2006, 12.31 % average
• Apalachicola. 11.22 % in 2006, 9.34 % average
• Melbourne. 8.10 % in 2006, 10.18 % average
• Titusville. 8.08 % in 2006, 8.55 % average
• Orlando. 6.68 % in 2006, 8.53 % average

Probabilities for all U.S. cities experiencing hurricane-force winds

• New Orleans, La. 29.30 % in 2006, 12.74 % average
• Mobile, Ala. 22.23 % in 2006, 11.30 % average
• Myrtle Beach, S.C. 18.42 % in 2006, 12.12 % average
• Brownsville, Texas. 15.52 % in 2006, 18.06 % average
• Cape Hatteras, N.C. 13.84 % in 2006, 20.12 % average
• Savannah, Ga. 13.58 % in 2006, 10.32 % average
• Galveston, Texas. 13.55 % in 2006, 11.40 % average
• Corpus Christi, Texas. 7.93 % in 2006, 7.97 % average
• New York. 7.38 % in 2006, 4.36 % average
• Atlantic City, N.J., 6.12 % in 2006, 4.61 % average
• Ocean City, Md. 5.67 % in 2006, 5.69 % average
• Cape Cod, Mass. 2.26 % in 2006, 7.22 % average

As a resident of New Orleans, freelance writer Craig Guillot has seen plenty of hurricane-related damage.